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Sunday, November 29, 2009
Energy Dreams Drive Tajikistan To Desperate Measures
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Tajikistan's government has placed its hopes on completing a "project of the century" that could put an end to its chronic electricity shortages and make it a regional energy powerhouse.
Finishing the most crucial part of the undertaking, however -- the massive Roghun dam that was begun last century, during the Soviet era -- will require huge sums of money.
And with promised foreign aid failing to materialize, Tajik leaders have in desperation called on citizens of the impoverished country to help fund the initiative by donating a month's salary.
Nikolai Savchenkov, who was director of the project when it began in the late 1970s, tells RFE/RL that "Tajikistan's survival as an independent nation depends on the Roghun plant."
Savchenkov says that the project would "solve all economic problems" the country faces. First, it would enable Tajikistan to produce and sell electricity at a profit. Second, it would resolve chronic water-shortage problems.
"Dams around Roghun and the existing Nurek power plant will store enormous amount of water from the Vakhsh [River] over many years," Savchenkov says.
With an abundance of rivers and streams coursing through its mountainous terrain, estimates suggest Tajikistan is capable of producing 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity per year -- the greatest hydroelectric potential in Central Asia. Ironically, however, the country faces severe energy shortages every winter and depends on its neighbors to provide electricity.
Troubled Investment
Looking to remedy the situation, Dushanbe in recent years turned to Russia to help fund the completion of Roghun, a project originally designed to feed six power-generating units spanning the Vakhsh River in southern Tajikistan.
Tajikistan hopes Roghun and other projects can help control chronic water shortages.Capable of generating 3.6 billion kilowatts of electricity a year, Roghun was to be the most powerful hydroelectric plant in Central Asia and, at 335 meters, the world's highest dam. But shortly before the collapse of the Soviet Union, the project was frozen and remains unfinished.
In 2007 a contract was signed with Russian aluminum giant RusAl to resume the project. But the deal was cancelled due to disagreements over the scale of the project amid strong opposition from neighboring Uzbekistan, which has argued that the dam could threaten environmental disaster for the region and leave the downstream country with severe water shortages.
But a number of countries in the region, including China, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, have expressed their willingness to import Tajik electricity, and Roghun's massive reservoir could be a way to alleviate seasonal water shortages, so Tajik politicians are undeterred.
Public Fund Raising
Now Mahmadsaid Ubaildulloev, the head of the upper chamber of the Tajik parliament, has suggested that if all Tajik workers were to donate one month's salary, this would generate $154 million toward finishing the Roghun project.
That would add to the $130 million the Tajik government has already allocated to fund Roghun's construction in its 2010 budget.
While an estimated $3 billion would be needed to complete the project as originally envisioned, with all six generating units, Tajik leaders are adamant that at least two units can be completed over the next five years using domestic funds.
Earlier this month, President Emomali Rahmon said he was confident that the Tajik people "will do everything they can to help complete" the Roghun project.
Tajik lawmakers have expanded the effort by calling on people to buy shares in Roghun that would be made available for trading on the country's stock market in 2010.
According to Tajik media reports, public-sector workers in some areas have already begun contributing money to the Roghun project, while others, including the Islamic Renaissance Party, have announced their intention to purchase Roghun shares.
'Why Should We Pay?
In a country where the average monthly salary is about $80, not everyone is happy with the prospect of having to donate money to Roghun or obtain its shares.
Kodir Khojaev, a businessman in the northern town of Khujand, says that he "couldn't care less about what happens in five years, I have more immediate problems to take care of
Tajiks are poorest among post-Soviet residents."Most Tajiks live in poverty and our earnings are hardly enough to buy food," Khojaev says. "Besides, how can I trust the government that it will complete Roghun in five years? We've heard these kinds of empty promises before."
With a gross domestic product per capita of about $1,800, Tajikistan is one of the poorest former Soviet countries.
Khojaev wonders why Tajikistan cannot use aid allocated from outside sources to fund the project.
"International organizations and financial institutions, such as the Asian Development Bank and others, allocate huge amounts of money to Tajikistan's development. We know about them from media reports," Khojaev says.
"Instead of asking for donations from the people, our leaders, who dub Roghun the 'project of the century,' should use that foreign investment in this project."
Khojaev's household, like other in the country, has been limited to five hours of electricity a day since the annual six-month rationing period began in early November.
His remarks represent the views of many ordinary Tajiks, who say they no longer expect the government to resolve the country's electricity crisis.
Khojimuhammad Umarov, a Dushanbe-based expert on the Tajik economy, tells RFE/RL that Roghun would solve the country's energy problem "once and for all."
But Umarov also says that Tajikistan would have to cooperate with its neighbors if it wanted to achieve its goal of making money from electricity exports.
"Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have in the past mentioned their readiness to invest in Roghun," Umarov says. "Tajikistan has to ask these two countries to step in now to invest."
Tajikistan also has other hydropower plants under construction, including Sangtuda-1 and Sangtuda-2, which are mostly owned by Russia and Iran, respectively. Sangtuda-1 has been partially completed and has started producing electricity.
Source:rferl.org
Tajikistan's government has placed its hopes on completing a "project of the century" that could put an end to its chronic electricity shortages and make it a regional energy powerhouse.
Finishing the most crucial part of the undertaking, however -- the massive Roghun dam that was begun last century, during the Soviet era -- will require huge sums of money.
And with promised foreign aid failing to materialize, Tajik leaders have in desperation called on citizens of the impoverished country to help fund the initiative by donating a month's salary.
Nikolai Savchenkov, who was director of the project when it began in the late 1970s, tells RFE/RL that "Tajikistan's survival as an independent nation depends on the Roghun plant."
Savchenkov says that the project would "solve all economic problems" the country faces. First, it would enable Tajikistan to produce and sell electricity at a profit. Second, it would resolve chronic water-shortage problems.
"Dams around Roghun and the existing Nurek power plant will store enormous amount of water from the Vakhsh [River] over many years," Savchenkov says.
With an abundance of rivers and streams coursing through its mountainous terrain, estimates suggest Tajikistan is capable of producing 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity per year -- the greatest hydroelectric potential in Central Asia. Ironically, however, the country faces severe energy shortages every winter and depends on its neighbors to provide electricity.
Troubled Investment
Looking to remedy the situation, Dushanbe in recent years turned to Russia to help fund the completion of Roghun, a project originally designed to feed six power-generating units spanning the Vakhsh River in southern Tajikistan.
Tajikistan hopes Roghun and other projects can help control chronic water shortages.Capable of generating 3.6 billion kilowatts of electricity a year, Roghun was to be the most powerful hydroelectric plant in Central Asia and, at 335 meters, the world's highest dam. But shortly before the collapse of the Soviet Union, the project was frozen and remains unfinished.
In 2007 a contract was signed with Russian aluminum giant RusAl to resume the project. But the deal was cancelled due to disagreements over the scale of the project amid strong opposition from neighboring Uzbekistan, which has argued that the dam could threaten environmental disaster for the region and leave the downstream country with severe water shortages.
But a number of countries in the region, including China, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, have expressed their willingness to import Tajik electricity, and Roghun's massive reservoir could be a way to alleviate seasonal water shortages, so Tajik politicians are undeterred.
Public Fund Raising
Now Mahmadsaid Ubaildulloev, the head of the upper chamber of the Tajik parliament, has suggested that if all Tajik workers were to donate one month's salary, this would generate $154 million toward finishing the Roghun project.
That would add to the $130 million the Tajik government has already allocated to fund Roghun's construction in its 2010 budget.
While an estimated $3 billion would be needed to complete the project as originally envisioned, with all six generating units, Tajik leaders are adamant that at least two units can be completed over the next five years using domestic funds.
Earlier this month, President Emomali Rahmon said he was confident that the Tajik people "will do everything they can to help complete" the Roghun project.
Tajik lawmakers have expanded the effort by calling on people to buy shares in Roghun that would be made available for trading on the country's stock market in 2010.
According to Tajik media reports, public-sector workers in some areas have already begun contributing money to the Roghun project, while others, including the Islamic Renaissance Party, have announced their intention to purchase Roghun shares.
'Why Should We Pay?
In a country where the average monthly salary is about $80, not everyone is happy with the prospect of having to donate money to Roghun or obtain its shares.
Kodir Khojaev, a businessman in the northern town of Khujand, says that he "couldn't care less about what happens in five years, I have more immediate problems to take care of
Tajiks are poorest among post-Soviet residents."Most Tajiks live in poverty and our earnings are hardly enough to buy food," Khojaev says. "Besides, how can I trust the government that it will complete Roghun in five years? We've heard these kinds of empty promises before."
With a gross domestic product per capita of about $1,800, Tajikistan is one of the poorest former Soviet countries.
Khojaev wonders why Tajikistan cannot use aid allocated from outside sources to fund the project.
"International organizations and financial institutions, such as the Asian Development Bank and others, allocate huge amounts of money to Tajikistan's development. We know about them from media reports," Khojaev says.
"Instead of asking for donations from the people, our leaders, who dub Roghun the 'project of the century,' should use that foreign investment in this project."
Khojaev's household, like other in the country, has been limited to five hours of electricity a day since the annual six-month rationing period began in early November.
His remarks represent the views of many ordinary Tajiks, who say they no longer expect the government to resolve the country's electricity crisis.
Khojimuhammad Umarov, a Dushanbe-based expert on the Tajik economy, tells RFE/RL that Roghun would solve the country's energy problem "once and for all."
But Umarov also says that Tajikistan would have to cooperate with its neighbors if it wanted to achieve its goal of making money from electricity exports.
"Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have in the past mentioned their readiness to invest in Roghun," Umarov says. "Tajikistan has to ask these two countries to step in now to invest."
Tajikistan also has other hydropower plants under construction, including Sangtuda-1 and Sangtuda-2, which are mostly owned by Russia and Iran, respectively. Sangtuda-1 has been partially completed and has started producing electricity.
Source:rferl.org
Can Tajikistan and 'aiming low' be a model for Afghanistan?
Analogies for the conflict in Afghanistan are many - the Vietnam conflict being the most common. But one influential journal says Tajikistan in the 1990s is more accurate, and calls for the strategy of "aiming low."
While the parallels between the US-led conflict in Afghanistan and the Vietnam war of the 1960s and 70s are many - a diffuse army with a sanctuary across the border, a high cost in "blood and treasure," and an American electorate unsure about being there in the first place - a more apt analogy would be right next door in Tajikistan, according to an essay just published in the influential journal Foreign Affairs.
And, the author contends, the international community's strategy there in the 1990s could provide a model to deal with the current quagmire in Afghanistan.
George Gavrilis, an international affairs fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, writes of government forces, Islamists and local warlords battling one another across a remote and mountainous territory while the drug trade flourishes, thousands are killed and even more stranded in grinding poverty.
But he is not referring to Afghanistan, rather, his reference here is Tajikistan in the 1990s, when a civil war broke out soon after the former Soviet satellite state declared its independence from Moscow.
While Afghanistan's conflict grinds on in its eighth year, next door, a small intervention by an unlikely team made up of the UN, Iran and Russia turned Tajikistan around in less time and for much less money, providing a detour from a path that was leading to disintegration.
Staying real
The outside players in Tajikistan dispensed with forcing free and fair elections, throwing out the warlords and flooding the country with foreign soldiers.
Instead, in a burst of realpolitik, it was decided to pursue a more limited set of goals: peace talks, integrating the warlords into the political process, limiting the number of peacekeepers on the ground and eventually bringing opposing parties to the table to sign a peace accord in 1997.
Today, Tajikistan is tolerably stable and acts as a transit nation for US supplies to Afghanistan.
"The Tajik case suggests that in trying to rebuild a failed state, less may be more," Gavrilis wrote.
Bildunterschrift: Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: Tajik President Emomali Rahmon
The architects of the plan had to leave out some features they might have liked - namely, a healthy democracy. Tajikistan is hardly an ideal state in Western eyes; it is authoritarian (Emomali Rahmon has ruled the country since 1992) and corrupt. Its economy is sputtering and the all-important remittances from Tajik workers in Russia are suffering.
But while this "aim-low" strategy disappoints idealists, in Tajikistan's case, it has enabled the country to avoid a return of the chaos of the 1990s - civil war and extremism.
"We shouldn't set our sights too high and we should concentrate on what is realistic," Stefan Meister of the German Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin told Deutsche Welle. "I am skeptical of this form of democracy building that the American have tried in several regions. In my opinion, it works in very few cases."
As in Iraq, the US under George W. Bush envisioned a country running along the lines of a western democracy, with transparent elections, a strong central government and a populace that embraced western values and norms - all accomplished in record time.
But, according to analysts, such a project is almost impossible to pull off, especially using a top-down approach in a country that has little or no history of democratic representation or confidence in government.
"Stabilization is the important thing," said Meister.
Analogy trap
But Meister and others warn that, even while there are similarities between Afghanistan and Tajikistan, making analogies to past conflicts and applying those lessons to current ones is a questionable exercise.
While on the surface there do seem to be similarities between the two neighbors, there are important differences, according to Alanna Shaikh, an international development consultant who lives in the Tajik capital Dushanbe.
Bildunterschrift: Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: Tajiks have had experience with a functioning government; Afghans have not
For example, she told Deutsche Welle, being a Soviet satellite changed Tajikistan in a lot of ways, including giving them experience with the kinds of services that a government can provide. Health care and education in the Soviet Tajikistan were fairly good.
"I feel like that experience with a competent government changed Tajik perceptions of government," she said.
Tajiks remembered what real government was like and therefore were more willing to trade their political and military ambitions away for a government that, in effect, looked a lot like what they had during the USSR.
"That is an experience that Afghanistan didn't have," she said. "And I think that generalizing from conflict to conflict is always too easy."
History, closer to home
Stefan Meister thinks that instead of looking across the border to Tajikistan, perhaps western forces in Afghanistan should look at another nation's experience in the country: Russia's.
The nine-year conflict began at the end of 1979 when Soviet troops entered Afghanistan. It ended after nearly 14,000 Soviet soldiers had been killed and thousands more disabled. Over one million Afghans were killed.
"The Soviets made similar mistakes in Afghanistan in certain aspects such as the central state, dealing with groups, trying to introduce modern societal forms too quickly and hitting strong resistance from the society," the Russia expert said. "Learning from that would help more than looking at another country and making big comparisons."
Bildunterschrift: Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: 'Aim low' and focus on stability or try to remake society?
It appears that is beginning to happen. Richard Holbrooke, the US special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, said on Monday his country is ready to continue dialogue with Russia on Afghanistan-related issues.
Holbrooke's boss, US President Barack Obama, has said he intends to "finish the job" in Afghanistan and it is expected he will announce the deployment of more troops into the country when he reveals his plans to the American public next week.
But that job description is still unclear, and within the Obama administration there has been debate about what the goals in Afghanistan should be: remaking society along a western model or "aiming low," focusing on stabilization and a slower path toward (hopefully) some future democracy.
"The Obama administration can come out of this quagmire if it aims low, targets the bad guys, builds a regional consensus," wrote renowned Pakistan journalist Ahmed Rashid, who has covered Afghanistan for 30 years, "and gives the Afghans what they really want - merely the chance to have a better life."
Source:dw-world.de
Tajikistan fails to curb abuse of women: Amnesty
ALMATY (Reuters) - The government of the Central Asian state of Tajikistan is failing to protect women from violence and abuse, human rights group Amnesty International said in a report on Tuesday.
Mostly Muslim Tajikistan, which borders Afghanistan, is the poorest former Soviet republic, its economy devastated by a civil war in the 1990s.
Observers see its government, led by President Imomali Rakhmon, as less repressive than those in neighboring Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, but London-based Amnesty said the issue of women's rights was pressing.
"Women in Tajikistan are beaten, abused, and raped in the family but the authorities tend to reflect the societal attitude of blaming the woman for domestic violence," Tajikistan expert Andrea Strasser-Camagni said in a statement.
The group said one-third to a half of Tajik women have been regularly subjected to physical, psychological or sexual violence at the hands of their husbands or in-laws and all women had very limited employment opportunities.
"Women are being treated as servants or as the in-laws' family property. They have no one to turn to as the policy of the authorities is to urge reconciliation which de facto reinforces their position of inferiority," Strasser-Camagni said.
"This experience of violence and humiliation in the family makes many women to turn to suicide."
Amnesty said many girls were being denied the opportunity to receive proper education, dropping out of school early to enter marriages, often polygamous or unregistered.
It urged the government to introduce laws and support services to tackle domestic violence and carry out public awareness campaigns addressing illegal marriage issues.
"By writing off violence against women as a family affair the authorities in Tajikistan are shirking their responsibility to a large part of the population," Strasser-Camagni said.
"They are allowing perpetrators of such crimes to act with impunity and, ultimately, denying women their human rights."
Source:reuters.com
Mostly Muslim Tajikistan, which borders Afghanistan, is the poorest former Soviet republic, its economy devastated by a civil war in the 1990s.
Observers see its government, led by President Imomali Rakhmon, as less repressive than those in neighboring Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, but London-based Amnesty said the issue of women's rights was pressing.
"Women in Tajikistan are beaten, abused, and raped in the family but the authorities tend to reflect the societal attitude of blaming the woman for domestic violence," Tajikistan expert Andrea Strasser-Camagni said in a statement.
The group said one-third to a half of Tajik women have been regularly subjected to physical, psychological or sexual violence at the hands of their husbands or in-laws and all women had very limited employment opportunities.
"Women are being treated as servants or as the in-laws' family property. They have no one to turn to as the policy of the authorities is to urge reconciliation which de facto reinforces their position of inferiority," Strasser-Camagni said.
"This experience of violence and humiliation in the family makes many women to turn to suicide."
Amnesty said many girls were being denied the opportunity to receive proper education, dropping out of school early to enter marriages, often polygamous or unregistered.
It urged the government to introduce laws and support services to tackle domestic violence and carry out public awareness campaigns addressing illegal marriage issues.
"By writing off violence against women as a family affair the authorities in Tajikistan are shirking their responsibility to a large part of the population," Strasser-Camagni said.
"They are allowing perpetrators of such crimes to act with impunity and, ultimately, denying women their human rights."
Source:reuters.com
Alleged IMU Terrorists Go On Trial In Tajikistan
KHUJAND, Tajikistan -- A court in Tajikistan's northern Sughd Province has begun trying two suspected terrorists, RFE/RL's Tajik Service reports.
Provincial Judge Farhod Ziyodulloev told RFE/RL that Qudratullo Nematulloev and Abdulsami Nurmuhammadi are accused of several crimes, including terrorism, murder, and plotting against the state.
Rauf Yusufov, the head of the local branch of the Interior Ministry, told RFE/RL that Nematulloev was detained in Moscow and extradited to Tajikistan earlier this year.
Nurmuhammadi was detained in his home city of Isfara this summer. His lawyer, Jamshed Saburov, says his client joined the terrorist Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) without knowing its goals but, after learning about the movement's ideology, left it.
Saburov said Nurmuhammadi never took part in any IMU operations. Nematulloev's lawyer, Anvar Nurmuhammadov, says his client has pleaded guilty to some charges.
Some 30 people in the Isfara region have been arrested and sentenced for being members of the IMU, which Tajikistan has categorized as a terrorist organization since 2005.
Source:rferl.org
Boulder teacher traveling to Tajikistan
An Arapahoe Ridge High School teacher will bring her expertise to Boulder's sister city next year as part of an international cultural exchange program.
Jode Brexa, who teaches language arts and English as a second language, will spend two weeks in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, in April, sharing her teaching practices with educators and participating in other programs with local schools.
Brexa is one of 40 teachers across the country selected to participate in the educational and cultural exchange program, which is run by the U.S. Department of State and International Research and Exchange Board. Participating teachers will be traveling to 18 countries in Asia, South and Central America and Sub-Saharan Africa.
"I was amazed when I found out that I would have the opportunity to bring the practices I do to that country," Brexa said. "It's a great opportunity."
Brexa will work with three Tajik teachers over the next few months and during her visit, exchanging educational issues and practices. Brexa will also visit Tajik schools, conduct workshops and meet with NGOs during her two-week trip.
One of the things she hopes to introduce to Tajik educators is digital storytelling, which she has been integrating into her classrooms.
As part of the sister cities program, Boulder officials opened a solar-powered cybercafe in Dushanbe last fall in exchange for the Dushanbe Teahouse, which opened here in 1990.
Brexa said she has been to the teahouse several times and put Dushanbe as her first choice because of the city's connection to Boulder. She said she was also swayed by a visit Sophia Stoller -- a member of the Boulder-Dushanbe Sister Cities organization -- made to the school.
"She came to talk about world cultures, and she engendered a lot of interest among students," Brexa said. "It was the first time I thought about Dushanbe as a destination."
Brexa said she has long been involved with international culture and exchange, beginning with her time as a Peace Corps volunteer. She said she's looking forward to learning more about Dushanbe and its educational system.
"I hope to explore the rich tapestry of Tajik culture, and find out what some of the educational challenges are there," she said. "I hope to use the experience to further educational reform."
Source:dailycamera.com
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